PFX PhenixFIN Corporation

Earnings

Typical surprise +129.8% (median, so one quarter with a near-zero estimate can't distort it)

• Wed, Aug 5$1.08 vs $0.47beat
• Tue, May 5$0.57 vs $0.45beat
• Mon, Feb 9$1.07 vs $0.39beat
• Fri, Dec 12$0.69 vs $0.24beat
• Thu, Aug 7$0.58 vs $0.54beat
• Tue, May 6$0.48 vs $0.82miss

Estimates and results for PFX via Financial Modeling Prep. Beating consensus says the company cleared the bar analysts set, not that the business grew.

Insider trading

Open-market buys and sells by PFX officers and directors.

Bought

$7.1m

98 trades

Sold

—

0 trades

• Lorber David Abought
  director, 10 percent owner, officer: CHAIRMAN AND CEO·42,065 @ $39.95·$1.7m·May 12, 2026·filing
• Amster Howardbought
  director, 10 percent owner:·11,500 @ $42.56·$489k·Mar 3, 2026·filing
• Lorber David Abought
  director, 10 percent owner, officer: CHAIRMAN AND CEO·572 @ $46.05·$26k·Dec 24, 2025·filing
• Lorber David Abought
  director, 10 percent owner, officer: CHAIRMAN AND CEO·133 @ $45.59·$6k·Dec 23, 2025·filing
• Mcmillan Ellidabought
  CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER·150 @ $45.33·$7k·Dec 23, 2025·filing
• Lorber David Abought
  director, 10 percent owner, officer: CHAIRMAN AND CEO·1,000 @ $45.44·$45k·Dec 22, 2025·filing
• Mcmillan Ellidabought
  CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER·6 @ $45.00·$270·Dec 22, 2025·filing
• Mcmillan Ellidabought
  CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER·37 @ $44.00·$2k·Dec 17, 2025·filing

2 further Form 4 entries are share awards, option exercises or shares withheld for tax. Those are compensation, not trades, so they are excluded above. Buying is the stronger signal: an insider spends their own money for one reason. Selling has many innocent explanations — tax, diversifying, a house — so it says far less than it appears to. Via SEC filings.

Valuation

Project earnings forward and see what return today's price implies.

Seeded from PFX's reported EPS growth of 43.9% a year over 4 years. Historical EPS growth of 44% reflects a recovery from a low base and won't persist. Capped at 30% as a starting point.

EPS in 5 years

$7.66

Implied price

$176.11

Return from $46.73

30.4% a year

To earn 15.0% a year on these assumptions you'd need to buy at $87.56 — today's price is already 46.6% below that.

How sensitive is that answer?

Annual return across nearby assumptions. If the result is only attractive in one corner, that is the finding.

This is arithmetic on assumptions you chose, not a forecast or a recommendation. It ignores dividends, buybacks, share issuance and debt, and it assumes a company still earning money in 5 years. Change any input and the answer changes a lot — that sensitivity is the honest result, not a flaw in the model.