Price
$75.43-8.57%Social Signal Score
Analyst Ratings
10 analystsRevenue
$197.00M-38.05%Analyst Estimates
Consensus estimates, not results. Via Financial Modeling Prep.
Company Profile
- CEO
- Dominic Frederico
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Insurance - Specialty
- Employees
- 367
- Beta
- 0.72
- Country
- BM
- Piotroski score
- 5 / 9 (Middling)
- Altman Z-score
- 1.26
Financials
Revenue
$197.00M-38.1%Net Income
$39.00M-91.9%EBITDA
$71.00M-86.0%Free Cash Flow
$40.00MEPS (diluted)
$0.87-75.8%Shares Outstanding (diluted)
44.60M-66.4%Operating Expenses
$0.00Cash & Debt
$7.13BReturn of Capital
$62.00MRevenue by Segment (annual)
$899.00MDividend per Share
$0.38Quote
Valuation & Ratios
Returns & Efficiency
Revenue & Net Income (Annual)
| Fiscal Year | Revenue | Net Income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $788.00M | $503.00M | $10.29 |
| 2024 | $814.00M | $376.00M | $7.01 |
| 2023 | $1.01B | $739.00M | $12.55 |
| 2022 | $684.00M | $124.00M | $1.96 |
| 2021 | $698.00M | $389.00M | $5.29 |
| 2020 | $1.08B | $362.00M | $4.22 |
| 2019 | $924.00M | $402.00M | $4.04 |
| 2018 | $987.00M | $521.00M | $4.74 |
| 2017 | $1.65B | $730.00M | $6.05 |
| 2016 | $1.38B | $881.00M | $6.61 |
| 2015 | $1.96B | $1.06B | $7.12 |
| 2014 | $1.74B | $1.09B | $6.30 |
| 2013 | $1.26B | $808.00M | $4.33 |
| 2012 | $763.00M | $110.00M | $0.58 |
Valuation
Project earnings forward and see what return today's price implies.
Seeded from AGO's reported EPS growth of 24.8% a year over 13 years.
- EPS in 5 years
- $31.14
- Implied price
- $280.27
- Return from $68.89
- 32.4% a year
To earn 15.0% a year on these assumptions you'd need to buy at $139.34 — today's price is already 50.6% below that.
How sensitive is that answer?
Annual return across nearby assumptions. If the result is only attractive in one corner, that is the finding.
| growth \ P/E | 5 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.8% | 8.3% | 15.8% | 21.8% | 26.8% | 31.1% |
| 19.8% | 13.0% | 20.9% | 27.1% | 32.3% | 36.8% |
| 24.8% | 17.7% | 25.9% | 32.4% | 37.8% | 42.5% |
| 29.8% | 22.4% | 31.0% | 37.7% | 43.3% | 48.2% |
| 34.8% | 27.1% | 36.0% | 43.0% | 48.9% | 53.9% |
This is arithmetic on assumptions you chose, not a forecast or a recommendation. It ignores dividends, buybacks, share issuance and debt, and it assumes a company still earning money in 5 years. Change any input and the answer changes a lot — that sensitivity is the honest result, not a flaw in the model.
Signal Score (90d)
80+0.00%Social Signal Score
Mentions (4)
- Newsbusinesswire.com·11d ago·Negative
…ty Statement Regarding Brightline Florida Financial Restructuring NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Assured Guaranty Inc. (AG), a subsidiary of Assured Guaranty Ltd. (NYSE: AGO) (together with its subsidiaries, Assured Guaranty), today issued the following statement regarding the financial restructuring of Brightline Florida Holdings LLC and its affiliates (collectively, Brightline Florida) and the Chapter 11 filing of certain Brightline Florida entities. Brightline Trains Florida LLC (OpCo), the oblig…
View source ↗ - Newsseekingalpha.com·12d ago·Negative
… has seen its market capitalization fall 40% since early 2024, driven by a reduced share buyback program and persistent operational losses in its insurance business. AGO's insurance business remains operationally loss-making, with operational results deteriorating further since 2024, undermining shareholder value. Maintaining the AA rating appears irrelevant for AGO shareholders, as it adds constraints but does not translate into market value or profitability.
View source ↗ - Newsseekingalpha.com·57d ago·Negative
Assured Guaranty's Recent Selloff Provides Great Entry Price At $75.43, the company trades at a steep 60% discount to adjusted book value and 40% to GAAP equity. Forward P/E multiples remain low, with FY2025 at 8.3x and consensus FY2026 at ~10.5x, suggesting undervaluation. Dividend yield stands at 2.0%, supported by robust claims-paying resources of $9.98B versus a $3.32B market cap.
View source ↗ - Newsmarketbeat.com·59d ago·Negative
Assured Guaranty Q2 Earnings Call Highlights Assured Guaranty NYSE: AGO reported higher second-quarter adjusted operating income and record per-share valuation metrics, while executives pointed to growth in U.S. public finance, global structured finance and the company's newer annuity reinsurance platform.
View source ↗
Earnings
Thu, Nov 5(in 4 weeks)
Consensus estimate $1.71 per share
Typical surprise +1.0% (median, so one quarter with a near-zero estimate can't distort it)
- Thu, Aug 6$1.23 vs $1.51miss
- Thu, May 7$2.50 vs $1.50beat
- Thu, Feb 26$2.32 vs $1.54beat
- Thu, Nov 6$2.42 vs $1.54beat
- Thu, Aug 7$1.01 vs $1.57miss
- Thu, May 8$3.18 vs $3.15beat
Estimates and results for AGO via Financial Modeling Prep. Beating consensus says the company cleared the bar analysts set, not that the business grew.
Insider trading
Open-market buys and sells by AGO officers and directors.
- Bought
- —
- Sold
- $30.8m
0 trades
12 trades
- Radtke Lorinsold
- Bailenson Robertsold
- Bailenson Robertsold
- Borges Francisco Lsold
- Frederico Dominicsold
- Frederico Dominicsold
- Radtke Lorinsold
- Frederico Dominicsold
88 further Form 4 entries are share awards, option exercises or shares withheld for tax. Those are compensation, not trades, so they are excluded above. Buying is the stronger signal: an insider spends their own money for one reason. Selling has many innocent explanations — tax, diversifying, a house — so it says far less than it appears to. Via SEC filings.
Congress trades
- Ro Khannahouse · CA17 · disclosed Jan 3, 2023 (28d later)Sell$1,001 - $15,000
- Donna Shalalahouse · FL27 · disclosed Apr 27, 2020 (418d later)Sell$1,001 - $15,000
- Van Taylorhouse · TX03 · disclosed Apr 15, 2019 (21d later)Sell$1,001 - $15,000
Self-reported filings, amounts as brackets. Via Senate/House disclosures.