AU AngloGold Ashanti plc

Earnings

Typical surprise -2.5% (median, so one quarter with a near-zero estimate can't distort it)

• Fri, Jul 31$1.98 vs $2.03miss
• Fri, May 8$2.52 vs $2.27beat
• Fri, Feb 20$1.90 vs $1.98miss
• Tue, Nov 11$1.32 vs $1.34miss
• Fri, Aug 1$1.25 vs $1.31miss
• Fri, May 9$0.88 vs $0.84beat

Estimates and results for AU via Financial Modeling Prep. Beating consensus says the company cleared the bar analysts set, not that the business grew.

Valuation

Project earnings forward and see what return today's price implies.

Seeded from AU's reported EPS growth of 37.3% a year over 4 years. Historical EPS growth of 37% reflects a recovery from a low base and won't persist. Capped at 30% as a starting point.

EPS in 5 years

$19.27

Implied price

$308.32

Return from $96.30

26.2% a year

To earn 15.0% a year on these assumptions you'd need to buy at $153.29 — today's price is already 37.2% below that.

How sensitive is that answer?

Annual return across nearby assumptions. If the result is only attractive in one corner, that is the finding.

This is arithmetic on assumptions you chose, not a forecast or a recommendation. It ignores dividends, buybacks, share issuance and debt, and it assumes a company still earning money in 5 years. Change any input and the answer changes a lot — that sensitivity is the honest result, not a flaw in the model.