GE GE Aerospace

Earnings

Typical surprise +16.1% (median, so one quarter with a near-zero estimate can't distort it)

• Thu, Jul 16$2.02 vs $1.86beat
• Tue, Apr 21$1.86 vs $1.60beat
• Thu, Jan 22$1.57 vs $1.43beat
• Tue, Oct 21$1.66 vs $1.46beat
• Thu, Jul 17$1.66 vs $1.43beat
• Tue, Apr 22$1.49 vs $1.27beat

Estimates and results for GE via Financial Modeling Prep. Beating consensus says the company cleared the bar analysts set, not that the business grew.

Valuation

Project earnings forward and see what return today's price implies.

EPS was negative in at least one boundary year, so a compound growth rate can't be computed from it. Set your own assumption.

EPS in 5 years

$11.99

Implied price

$455.47

Return from $368.38

4.3% a year

To earn 15.0% a year on these assumptions you'd need to buy at $226.45 — -38.5% below today's price.

How sensitive is that answer?

Annual return across nearby assumptions. If the result is only attractive in one corner, that is the finding.

This is arithmetic on assumptions you chose, not a forecast or a recommendation. It ignores dividends, buybacks, share issuance and debt, and it assumes a company still earning money in 5 years. Change any input and the answer changes a lot — that sensitivity is the honest result, not a flaw in the model.