IHG InterContinental Hotels Group PLC

Earnings

Typical surprise +3.8% (median, so one quarter with a near-zero estimate can't distort it)

• Tue, Aug 11$2.75 vs $2.65beat
• Tue, Feb 17$2.59 vs $2.57beat
• Mon, Aug 4$3.00 vs $2.42beat
• Tue, Feb 18$1.74 vs $2.29miss
• Tue, Oct 22$2.10 vs $1.98beat
• Tue, Aug 6$2.04 vs $1.98beat

Estimates and results for IHG via Financial Modeling Prep. Beating consensus says the company cleared the bar analysts set, not that the business grew.

Valuation

Project earnings forward and see what return today's price implies.

Seeded from IHG's reported EPS growth of 35.7% a year over 4 years. Historical EPS growth of 36% reflects a recovery from a low base and won't persist. Capped at 30% as a starting point.

EPS in 5 years

$18.06

Implied price

$523.84

Return from $160.22

26.7% a year

To earn 15.0% a year on these assumptions you'd need to buy at $260.44 — today's price is already 38.5% below that.

How sensitive is that answer?

Annual return across nearby assumptions. If the result is only attractive in one corner, that is the finding.

This is arithmetic on assumptions you chose, not a forecast or a recommendation. It ignores dividends, buybacks, share issuance and debt, and it assumes a company still earning money in 5 years. Change any input and the answer changes a lot — that sensitivity is the honest result, not a flaw in the model.