Price
No data yet.
Social Signal Score
Revenue
$13.28B+81.33%Analyst Estimates
Consensus estimates, not results. Via Financial Modeling Prep.
Company Profile
- CEO
- Meisong Lai
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Integrated Freight & Logistics
- Employees
- 23,399
- Beta
- -0.22
- Country
- CN
- Piotroski score
- 7 / 9 (Strong)
- Altman Z-score
- 3.77
Financials
Revenue
$13.28B+81.3%Net Income
$2.12B+63.9%EBITDA
$2.74B+32.3%Free Cash Flow
$2.79BEPS (diluted)
$2.68+71.8%Shares Outstanding (diluted)
798.34M-3.5%Operating Expenses
$815.66MCash & Debt
$30.49BReturn of Capital
$0.00Revenue by Segment (annual)
$49.10BDividend per Share
$0.39Quote
Valuation & Ratios
Returns & Efficiency
Revenue & Net Income (Annual)
| Fiscal Year | Revenue | Net Income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $47.76B | $8.83B | $11.05 |
| 2024 | $44.28B | $8.82B | $10.95 |
| 2023 | $38.42B | $8.75B | $10.83 |
| 2022 | $35.38B | $6.81B | $8.41 |
| 2021 | $30.41B | $4.75B | $5.80 |
| 2020 | $25.21B | $4.31B | $5.42 |
| 2019 | $22.11B | $5.67B | $7.24 |
| 2018 | $17.60B | $4.38B | $5.83 |
| 2017 | $13.06B | $3.16B | $4.41 |
| 2016 | $9.79B | $2.05B | $2.91 |
| 2015 | $6.09B | $1.33B | $1.65 |
| 2014 | $3.90B | $406.43M | $0.52 |
Valuation
Project earnings forward and see what return today's price implies.
Seeded from ZTO's reported EPS growth of 32.0% a year over 11 years. Historical EPS growth of 32% reflects a recovery from a low base and won't persist. Capped at 30% as a starting point.
- EPS in 5 years
- $41.12
- Implied price
- $534.54
- Return from $23.13
- 87.4% a year
To earn 15.0% a year on these assumptions you'd need to buy at $265.76 — today's price is already 91.3% below that.
How sensitive is that answer?
Annual return across nearby assumptions. If the result is only attractive in one corner, that is the finding.
| growth \ P/E | 9 | 11 | 13 | 15 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.0% | 60.7% | 67.3% | 73.0% | 78.0% | 82.5% |
| 25.0% | 67.4% | 74.3% | 80.2% | 85.4% | 90.1% |
| 30.0% | 74.1% | 81.2% | 87.4% | 92.8% | 97.7% |
| 35.0% | 80.8% | 88.2% | 94.6% | 100.3% | 105.3% |
| 40.0% | 87.5% | 95.2% | 101.8% | 107.7% | 112.9% |
This is arithmetic on assumptions you chose, not a forecast or a recommendation. It ignores dividends, buybacks, share issuance and debt, and it assumes a company still earning money in 5 years. Change any input and the answer changes a lot — that sensitivity is the honest result, not a flaw in the model.
Signal Score (90d)
70-53.33%Social Signal Score
Mentions (3)
- Newsseekingalpha.com·12h ago·Positive
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
View source ↗ - Newsmarketbeat.com·15h ago·Neutral
ZTO Express (Cayman) Q2 Earnings Call Highlights ZTO Express (Cayman) NYSE: ZTO reported second-quarter 2026 results that showed higher revenue, profit and parcel volume as China's express-delivery market moved toward what management described as more rational competition and improved pricing conditions.
View source ↗ - Newsprnewswire.com·19h ago·Neutral
ZTO Reports Second Quarter 2026 Unaudited Financial Results 10.5 Billion Parcels Expanded Market Share to 19.9% Adjusted Net Income Increased 50.3% to RMB3.1 Billion SHANGHAI, Aug. 18, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE: ZTO and SEHK: 2057), a leading and fast-growing express delivery company in China ("ZTO" or the "Company"), today announced its unaudited financial results for the second Quarter ended June 30, 2026[1]. The Company grew parcel volume by 6.5% year over year whil…
View source ↗
Earnings
Wed, Nov 18(in 3 months)
Consensus estimate $0.54 per share
Typical surprise -3.5% (median, so one quarter with a near-zero estimate can't distort it)
- Tue, Aug 18$0.56 vs $0.50beat
- Tue, May 19$0.43 vs $0.45miss
- Tue, Mar 17$0.47 vs $0.45beat
- Wed, Nov 19$0.44 vs $0.35beat
- Tue, Aug 19$0.35 vs $0.40miss
- Wed, May 21$0.34 vs $0.40miss
Estimates and results for ZTO via Financial Modeling Prep. Beating consensus says the company cleared the bar analysts set, not that the business grew.
Insider trading
Open-market buys and sells by ZTO officers and directors.
No open-market trades in the recent filings. All 47 recent Form 4 entries were share awards, option exercises or tax withholding — pay, not decisions to buy or sell.
47 further Form 4 entries are share awards, option exercises or shares withheld for tax. Those are compensation, not trades, so they are excluded above. Buying is the stronger signal: an insider spends their own money for one reason. Selling has many innocent explanations — tax, diversifying, a house — so it says far less than it appears to. Via SEC filings.